Luka Doncic’s partnership with Kyrie Irving hasn’t yielded the results the Mavericks expected. Dallas was 4th in the West when they took over Irving from the Nets on February 6th. Almost two months later, after losing to the – without Bam Adebayo – Heat, Dallas are 11th(!) in the West and are struggling to get into the play-in, with the odds not being on their side.

The Mavericks have basically put their hands up and gouged out their eyes for the past few days. The back-to-back losses to the indifferent Hornets have practically turned things on their head for Doncic’s company Irving, who instead sits 10th in the West with a 39-39 record (level with Wolves, who are 9th in the West). are out of play-in and things are looking extremely bad.

To be precise, here are the rankings in the West at places 7-12:
7. New Orleans Pelicans 40-38
8. LA Lakers 39-38
9.Minnesota Timberwolves 39-39
10. Oklahoma City Thunder 38-40
———-
11 Dallas Mavericks 37-41
12. Utah Jazz 36-41

The Mavericks are 1 game behind the Thunder, 2 behind the Wolves, 2.5 behind the Lakers and 3 behind the Pelicans, while the Jazz are a half game behind them in 12th place. With the exception of the Lakers and Jazz – who have 5 games left – the other teams battling for a play-in spot (Pelicans have realistic hopes for even 5th place) have 4 games each.

It looks difficult for Dallas. But in reality, it’s…worse, as the Mavs lag behind the teams above them in almost every tiebreak. Specifically, Dallas has:
2-2 wins over Pelicans (falling behind because New Orleans has better offense)
3-1 win over the Lakers
1-2 wins against Wolves
1-2 wins against the Thunder
3:1 wins against the Jazz

In a few words: With the exception of the Lakers, the Mavericks don’t want to be tied with any team other than the current ranks 7-10. Special:

• In order for the Mavericks to overtake the Thunder – who are their direct competitor – they need to win two more in the four remaining games until the end of the regular season. For example, that’s 3 wins and Oklahoma City one win, or 4/4 and The Thunder up to two wins.
• To get past the Wolves, they need to win three times more than Minnesota (3 wins against none of the Wolves or 4 wins for a Wolves win).
• To get past the pelicans they have to go 4/4 and the pelicans 0/4
• To get past the Lakers, all they have to do is tie.

The schedule is dangerous, but the Thunder are in…worse

With the Mavericks losing 5 of their last 6 games, including two straight losses to the Hornets, it’s clear Dallas can… lose to anyone. But even leaving their image out of the equation, a look at their schedule shows that things aren’t easy as 3 of their 4 remaining games are high stakes.

Specifically, the Mavericks will face off in their last 4 games in order:

• Away from the Atlanta Hawks (38-39) by Trae Young and Dejude Marie who are fighting for a good position in the eastern play-in.
• Home of the Sacramento Kings (47-30) who secured 3rd place in the west but are still chasing 2nd place from the Grizzlies.
• Home of the Chicago Bulls (37-40) fighting for No. 10 in the West.
• At home with the Spurs (19-58) going through the “YOLO” stage in pursuit of Victor Webanyama and maybe even giving Gregg Popovich or the guy who works the floor in the team canteen some playing time to make sure that they do get beaten.

As becomes clear, the Mavs, despite 3/4 home games – with the exception of the Spurs – meet teams hungry for victory. You can hope that Sacramento might show up without their appetizers, but as it turns out, even that might not be enough.

On a positive note for the Mavericks, their direct rival (The Thunder) has an even tougher schedule as they face the Suns (home), Warriors (away), Jazz (away), and Grizzlies (home) in HQ order. In general, making it to a win is indeed an open-ended scenario for Oklahoma City, giving the Mavericks a breather. But Dallas can’t count on the Thunder’s results, they need to win first.

Either way, it’s clear the Mavericks are in a tough spot. Right now, they certainly don’t look like the title contenders they expected when they took over Irving. Instead they look like – and are – a mediocre team with no chemistry and a Swiss cheese defense.

Will the Texans flip the switch in the last 4 games? If they don’t, the year will prove to be a fiasco, especially considering they made it to the West Finals last year. However, the worst thing is that even if they get enough wins, it may not be enough. And there’s nothing worse than not defining your NBA destiny.