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Copa do Brasil draw produces three derbies against 1% odds

The Copa do Brasil quarter-final draw set up three state derbies with a 0.95 percent probability, including Palmeiras against Santos.

Copa do Brasil draw produces three derbies against 1% odds

The Copa do Brasil quarter-final draw held on Tuesday, August 11, produced three state derbies, pairing Palmeiras against Santos, Atletico-MG against Cruzeiro, and Gremio against Internacional. Vasco will face Vitoria to complete the four knockout fixtures.

The outcome came as the major surprise of the draw, setting up state rivalries between teams from Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio Grande do Sul. All eight teams were placed into a single pot without draw restrictions, resulting in 105 possible matchup combinations.

Low probability of state derbies

Only one of those 105 combinations allowed all three derbies to occur simultaneously. The odds of drawing the three regional rivalries together stood at 1 in 105, representing a probability of just 0.95 percent, or less than 1 percent.

The first-leg quarter-final matches will take place during the week of August 26. Broadcaster Galvao reacted to the derby-heavy lineup by commenting that fans will need strong hearts for the upcoming clashes.

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