With the opening day of the Premier League season fast approaching, Arsenal are overwhelming favourites to defend their title.
Mikel Arteta's side ended a 22-year wait to become champions last term. The Gunners held off Manchester City after finishing as runners-up in three successive seasons.
Arteta is looking to become only the fourth manager in Premier League history to retain the title, following Sir Alex Ferguson, Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola.
Opta's supercomputer conducted 10,000 data-led simulations of the upcoming 2026-27 campaign. It gives Arsenal a 38 per cent chance of lifting the trophy again in May.
One concern for Arsenal is the back injury sustained by William Saliba. The team's Premier League win percentage drops from 68.7 to 47.6 per cent when the Frenchman is unavailable.
Manchester City rebuild without Guardiola
Manchester City are viewed as Arsenal's most likely challengers despite the departure of legendary manager Pep Guardiola.
Enzo Maresca's side are given a 20.5 per cent chance of glory following a summer of change. Elliot Anderson is the headline addition for £116 million, although Rodri could follow Bernardo Silva in leaving the club.
Opta projects the top of the table as follows:
- Arsenal: 38%
- Manchester City: 20.5%
- Liverpool: 9.2%
- Manchester United: 6.2%
- Aston Villa: 4.8%
- Chelsea: 4.1%
- Tottenham Hotspur: 2.9%
Liverpool are the third most likely champions at 9.2 per cent. The Anfield side were given a 28.5 per cent chance of retaining the title last year under Arne Slot, but ultimately finished fifth.
New Liverpool boss Andoni Iraola admitted in pre-season that his side "cannot sustain the level we want" at this time.
Chelsea and Tottenham spend big
Manchester United have a 6.2 per cent chance of winning the league under Michael Carrick.
Unai Emery's Aston Villa are fifth favourites at 4.8 per cent. They sold Morgan Rogers to Chelsea for a British transfer record of £117 million and saw Youri Tielemans depart to Manchester United.
Chelsea narrowly follow at 4.1 per cent under new boss Xabi Alonso. The Blues have a clear fixture schedule after missing out on European competition last season.
Tottenham Hotspur have a 2.9 per cent chance of claiming the title under Roberto De Zerbi. Spurs have been among the biggest spenders in the transfer market this summer. Sandro Tonali and Mateus Fernandes arrived as marquee signings for £100 million and £85 million respectively.
The spending spree comes after Tottenham recorded back-to-back 17th placed finishes in the top flight. They only confirmed their Premier League status on the final day of last season.
Newly promoted sides face immediate drop
At the other end of the table, the three newly promoted sides are viewed as the most likely to go straight back down to the Championship.
Hull City earned promotion through the play-offs and are deemed the most at risk of relegation at 38.7 per cent. Ipswich Town and Coventry City follow on 31.2 and 27.9 per cent respectively.
Those clubs can take heart from Sunderland. The Black Cats were viewed as the side most likely to finish bottom last season, but ended up qualifying for Europe after a memorable campaign.
Opta assesses the clubs most at risk of relegation as follows:
- Hull City: 38.7%
- Ipswich Town: 31.2%
- Coventry City: 27.9%
- Sunderland: 25.9%
- Fulham: 23.4%
- Leeds United: 22.5%
- Crystal Palace: 20%
Opta considers Sunderland the fourth most likely club to go down. Their participation in the Europa League and limited transfer activity this summer could impact their domestic prospects.
Sunderland had the third lowest open-play expected goals in the top flight last season. They also faced the third-most shots and the fourth-most shots on target.
Arbeloa takes charge at Fulham
Fulham are the next club at risk at 23.4 per cent following Marco Silva's departure. Alvaro Arbeloa has replaced him as manager.
Leeds United have a 22.5 per cent chance of going down, while Crystal Palace follow at 20 per cent.
The remaining clubs most at risk are Nottingham Forest at 18.1 per cent, Brentford at 16.3 per cent, Everton at 13.6 per cent and Bournemouth at 13.1 per cent.
