(Montreal) As the 28 players whose names appear on the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) ballot for possible induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame, several of the nearly 400 voting members have already made their choices known.
Of the lot, only Scott Rolen (79.5%) and Todd Helton (79%) obtained at least one vote on 75% of the ballots – the eligibility threshold – of the 167 ballots released late Sunday night.
Canadian Press journalist Frédéric Daigle is a member of the BBWAA but does not yet have the right to vote, granted after having been a member in good standing for just 10 consecutive years.
Here is the ballot he would have turned in if he had been entitled to vote in the 2023 crop, which will be sworn in in Cooperstown next July.
(function () {
var slotName = “ad63ceb7c5bccc0-adSlotLppos”;
var dimensions = [“fluid”,[634,125],[634,150],[634,180],[634,200],[634,634],[634,400],[640,360],[640,480],[728,200]];
var positionName = null;
var pageBlock = “text”;
positionName = “pos0″;
var adUnitPath=”/” + [
nuglif.ngApp.globals.network,
nuglif.ngApp.globals.topLevelAdUnit,
nuglif.ngApp.globals.adUnit
].join(‘/’);
LPAds.createAdSpot(slotName, adUnitPath, pageBlock, positionName, dimensions);
function setUpProductGalleryAd() {
console.debug(‘Ads: Product gallery detected for ‘ + slotName);
document.getElementById(slotName).parentElement.style.maxWidth=”728px”;
document.getElementById(slotName).parentElement.style.width=”100%”;
}
function setUpNativeAd() {
console.debug(‘Ads: Native Ad detected for ‘ + slotName);
document.getElementById(slotName).parentElement.style.width=”100%”;
}
function setUpNativeAdXtra() {
console.debug(‘Ads: Native Ad Xtra detected for ‘ + slotName);
document.getElementById(slotName).parentElement.style.width=”100%”;
document.getElementById(slotName).classList.add(“adSpotBlock__slotInner–xtra”);
}
LPAds.registerSpotReceived(slotName, function (slotData) {
if (slotData) {
if (LPAds.isProductGalleryAd(slotData.creativeTemplateId)) {
setUpProductGalleryAd();
} else if (LPAds.isNativeAd(slotData.creativeTemplateId)) {
setUpNativeAd();
} else if (LPAds.isNativeAdXtra(slotData.creativeTemplateId)) {
setUpNativeAdXtra();
}
}
});
LPAds.displayAdSpot(slotName);
})()
Casting your vote – 10 at the most, as the rules stipulate – may sound a lot easier than it actually is. A good place to start is to see which names were on your report card the year before but are no longer there.
Either because they were inducted (David Ortiz), because they reached the 10-year eligibility limit (Barry Bonds, Rogers Clemens, Sammy Sosa), or because they didn’t get the 5% of votes needed for their names to appear on the ballots again. (no candidate on my ballot), these players clear space for you.
Which leaves us with a list that includes Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Andy Pettitte, Alex Rodriguez, Scott Rolen and Gary Sheffield: six candidates.
In principle, therefore, there are four possible vacancies left on my ballot, unless new candidates come to supplant those already chosen. So let’s look at the freshman year applicants.
Carlos Beltran, Matt Cain, RA Dickey, Jacoby Ellsbury, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Jhonny Peralta, Francisco Rodriguez and Huston Street are all in their first year of eligibility.
Of the lot, only Beltran seems to me a possible candidate. My six recurring names therefore have their lives saved for the moment.
Among those who did not get my vote last year, two candidates now seem worthy. First, there’s Manny Ramirez. With the arrival of Alex Rodriguez at the polls, I ran out of space and it was Ramirez who paid the price. The space freed up allows me to put it back in my newsletter.
There is also the candidacy of reliever Billy Wagner, which now seems more valid to me. After reading many other voters’ opinions about him, I’m willing to side with his arguments.
I therefore come to nine votes. Here is, in summary, what fueled my thinking for each of them:
Carlos Beltran (1 year eligibility)
A 20-year career, 2,725 hits, 565 doubles, 435 home runs, 1,587 RBI and averages of . His 70.1 WAR ranks him ninth among center fielders. Everyone ahead of him except Mike Trout, for obvious reasons, is in the Temple, while many behind him are as well.
We’ll have to see how voters handle the 2017 Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal. Beltran was identified in the commissioner’s office report.
Todd Helton (5and ; 52.0% of votes last year)
Clearly, his 17 years in Colorado influence voters, as in the case of Larry Walker, elected in his 10andyear of eligibility.
However, a look at his stats at opposing stadiums (0.287/0.386/0.469) shows that he hasn’t lost his means there. He landed 1,394 hits in Colorado to 1,125 elsewhere.
His WAR, WAR7 and JAWS are respectively better than 14, 20 and 16 first goals ever conceded in Cooperstown (excluding Ortiz).
Andrew Jones (6and 41.4%)
In his 17 seasons from 1996 to 2012, he was arguably the top center back in 12 of them.
From 1998 to 2007, he won 11 consecutive Golden Gloves. In the same period, he added a Silver Stick, five All-Star Game appearances and finished second in 2005 Most Valuable Player voting after leading the Majors with 51 home runs and the Nationals with 128 points.
His offensive stats alone leave him a bit short, but factoring in his massive defensive contribution, Jones is a Hall of Famer.
Andy Petitte (5and; 10.7%)
Eleventh among left-handed pitchers with 256 wins and 42 total. Seven of the top 10 in the standings are in the Hall of Fame. His 2,448 eliminations give him 15thand historic position among left-handers; four of the 14 ahead of you are in Cooperstown.
Pettitte has won four World Series and is 19-11 in playoff games; as well as four top-5 finishes for Cy-Young.
It’s true that the advanced stats make his candidacy tarnish: his numbers are below the average of the 65 starters in Cooperstown.
Manny Ramirez (7.28.9%)
Ramirez returns on my ballot. Applying the “morality squad” logic that led us to vote for Bonds, Clemens and Pettitte, we have to be consistent and vote for Ramirez.
Statistics also support his candidacy: 555 home runs, 2,574 hits, 1,813 RBIs, averages of . 312/. 411/. 585, eight Silver Sticks, and eight top-10 finishes in MVP voting.
Voters have rejected steroid-era members in recent years, however, and Ramirez’s candidacy faces the same fate of spending 10 years on the ballot without entering the Temple.
Alex Rodrigues (2and 34.3%)
Three MVP titles, one batting championship title, fifth all-time in home runs with 696 and RBIs with 2,086. Offensive averages of 0.295/0.380/0.550. A WAR of 117.1.
All of these stats make you a member of the Temple your first year of eligibility… except when you use steroids. Will A-Rod be the exception that proves the rule? Not in 2023, but there is still enough time to reverse the trend.
Scott Rollen (6and; 63.2%)
Rolen continues his rise on the ballot and his momentum towards Cooperstown now looks unstoppable. His introduction will be fully deserved.
If his “traditional” stats (. 281 / . 364 / . 490, 2077 hits including 517 doubles and 316 home runs, 1287 RBI and 1211 runs scored) seem to leave him short, his advanced stats open the door for him.
His WAR, his WAR7 and his JAWS are all above the average of 15 third basemen (Baseball-reference.com puts Edgar Martinez in this position) already admitted. He comes to 10andall-time ranking for WAR and JAWS, 14andfor WAR7.
And what about his defensive prowess: 1997 Rookie of the Year, Rolen won eight Golden Gloves.
Gary Sheffield (9and; 40.6%)
Sheffield will likely run out of time unless a spectacular cabal turns the tide in their favour.
Still, he has the “magic number” of 500 (509) home runs in his pocket, in addition to having hit 2,689 hits and maintaining averages of 0.292/0.393/0.514.
“Sheff” finished in the top 5 of MVP voting five times, won five Silver Sticks and was named to the All-Star team nine times in 22 years.
Without a golden glove to bolster his candidacy, his career defensive efficiency rating of .977 is not trivial.
Billy Wagner (83.51.0%)
TAMI CHAPPELL PHOTO, REUTERS ARCHIVES Billy Wagner in 2010
His 422 saves rank sixth in history. His 11.92 strikeouts per nine innings gives him the all-time best strikeout average.
Interesting stat, reported by the excellent Jayson Stark of The Athletic, and attributed to Austin Eich, a big supporter of Wagner’s candidacy: he could come back and allow 100 consecutive hits and opposing batters would hit for 0.211 against him, the same average against Mariano Rivera .
If he allowed 200 hits in a row? He would still have a lower batting average against him than the batters held against Lee Smith at . 273.
Why not Francisco Rodriguez then?
Do I give my vote to Wagner and not K-Rod, who saved 437 games? I trust your advanced stats.
Its WAR, WAR7 and JAWS (24.2/17.6/20.9) are well below the standards set by accepted relievers in Cooperstown.
Those excluded (year of eligibility)
Bobby Abreu (4and), Mark Buehrle (3and), Matt Cain (1), RA Dickey (1), Jacoby Ellsbury (1), Torii Hunter (3and), Jeff Kent (10and), John Lackey (1), Mike Napoli (1), Jhonny Peralta (1), Francisco Rodriguez (1), Jimmy Rollins (2), Huston Street (1), Omar Vizquel (6)
*WAR: Wins over substitution. Wins achieved by a player compared to an average player who would give zero. WAR7: Total of a player’s seven best WAR seasons, not necessarily consecutive. JAWS: Average of WAR and WAR7.
**Stats are all from Baseball-Reference.com
(function () {
var slotName = “ad63ceb7c5bceea-adSlotLppos”;
var dimensions = [“fluid”,[634,125],[634,150],[634,180],[634,200],[634,634],[634,400],[640,360],[640,480],[728,200]];
var positionName = null;
var pageBlock = “text”;
positionName = “pos1″;
var adUnitPath=”/” + [
nuglif.ngApp.globals.network,
nuglif.ngApp.globals.topLevelAdUnit,
nuglif.ngApp.globals.adUnit
].join(‘/’);
LPAds.createAdSpot(slotName, adUnitPath, pageBlock, positionName, dimensions);
function setUpProductGalleryAd() {
console.debug(‘Ads: Product gallery detected for ‘ + slotName);
document.getElementById(slotName).parentElement.style.maxWidth=”728px”;
document.getElementById(slotName).parentElement.style.width=”100%”;
}
function setUpNativeAd() {
console.debug(‘Ads: Native Ad detected for ‘ + slotName);
document.getElementById(slotName).parentElement.style.width=”100%”;
}
function setUpNativeAdXtra() {
console.debug(‘Ads: Native Ad Xtra detected for ‘ + slotName);
document.getElementById(slotName).parentElement.style.width=”100%”;
document.getElementById(slotName).classList.add(“adSpotBlock__slotInner–xtra”);
}
LPAds.registerSpotReceived(slotName, function (slotData) {
if (slotData) {
if (LPAds.isProductGalleryAd(slotData.creativeTemplateId)) {
setUpProductGalleryAd();
} else if (LPAds.isNativeAd(slotData.creativeTemplateId)) {
setUpNativeAd();
} else if (LPAds.isNativeAdXtra(slotData.creativeTemplateId)) {
setUpNativeAdXtra();
}
}
});
LPAds.displayAdSpot(slotName);
})()