Climate change is making major league baseball hitters more fearsome than ever, allowing them to hit 50 more home runs each year, calculates a study released last week.
Warmer, less dense air, which allows the ball to travel farther, has contributed modestly to the jump in the number of home runs since 2010, according to a statistical analysis published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by researchers at Dartmouth College.
They analyzed more than 100,000 Major League Baseball games and more than 200,000 balls batted in play over the last few years, as well as taking into account factors such as weather and stadiums.
“Climate change is boosting home runs in major league baseball,” said study author Climatologist Justin Mankin.
It’s a simple matter of physics.
When the air heats up, the molecules move faster and move further away from each other, making the air less dense. Balls hit therefore travel farther as the thinner air offers less resistance to slow them down. A few more yards, or even a few inches, could mean the difference between a home run and a flyoff, said Alan Nathan, a physicist at the University of Illinois who was not involved in the study.
The Doctor. Nathan is part of a group of researchers recruited by Major League Baseball to study the rise in home runs. His own calculations arrive at the same results as the experts at Dartmouth.
Both Norman and the Dartmouth researchers found that each degree Celsius increase in air temperature added 1.8% to the probability of a home run. Home runs driven by global warming make up 1% of all home runs hit during a season, according to the Dartmouth study.
Non-weather factors, however, contribute more to the bombing that pitchers experience, according to researchers and baseball experts. The most important factor would be the ball and seam size, Norman said, and Major League Baseball made small changes to make the ball more inert before the start of the 2021 season.
Other factors include the attention hitters pay to the angle at which they hit the ball; stronger hitters; and releases that arrive faster.
The study began after the end of the inglorious era of steroids in major league baseball, which saw some records fall.
Former Major League Baseball players and executives say the study matches their own observations on the field.
“That’s what we’ve been thinking about for years,” said Philadelphia Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, a former general manager of the Montreal Expos. When it’s warmer, the ball travels more, and they have scientific evidence to back it up. »
Home runs have always fluctuated from stadium to stadium, due to factors as simple as varying the distance from home plate to the fence or even wind conditions.
The Dartmouth researchers found that the impact of weather on home runs also varies by terrain. Chicago’s Wrigley Field still hosts many games in broad daylight, and is where global warming facilitates home runs. Statistical analysis found no such effect at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay, Major League Baseball’s only permanently covered stadium.
“It’s interesting to think about,” said former pitcher David Cone, who has played in five All-Star games and now works as a television analyst. Maybe I’m a little more interested in how the ball is made, variables and specs. But the weather is important for sure. »
The heat is also hard for players and fans to bear. The average temperature in June, July and August in the United States has risen by more than 2 degrees Celsius over the past 40 years, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
And that’s just the beginning. Dartmouth researchers calculated that global warming has allowed more than 500 balls to fall over the fence since 2010, but thousands more could do the same in years to come.
The exact number of additional home runs will depend on the heat, which will depend on the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere, which will depend, among other things, on total hydrocarbon consumption.
Mr. Callahan performed several computer simulations.
In the worst warming scenario – which the planet appears to be coming out of, according to the most recent emissions – there would be 192 more home runs per year in 2050 and 467 in 2100. But a more modest pollution scenario, more like the current situation , plans another 155 circuits by 2050 and about 255 by the end of the century, according to Callahan.
Baseball generates so much analytics and statistics that it’s easier to detect the impact of climate change, Mankin said. Despite this, it is not possible for the researchers to state that such a circuit would have remained within the limits of the field without global warming.
Several climatologists told The Associated Press that the study makes perfect sense and that the numbers were well-analyzed, also noting that factors other than climate likely have a greater impact.
Andrew Dessler of Texas A&M University and Don Wuebbles of the University of Illinois said the rise in home runs is interesting but insignificant when compared to issues like extreme weather events or rising sea levels.
“Climate change is going to reshape many of the things we love in subtle and pernicious ways,” he said. Watching fewer outdoor baseball games won’t bring civilization down, but it is another demonstration of how our lives will change due to greenhouse gas emissions. »
