Does Ohtani’s contract make no sense? That remains to be seen.

For cultural reasons, the Japanese baseball player is discreet and expresses himself through his performances. But Shohei Ohtani was never afraid to cause a stir.

In high school, he wanted to be the first Japanese person to go straight to higher education. In his professional debut in Japan, he demanded to play on the field and mound, which is rare. He continued with the Los Angeles Angels for the past six seasons, winning two MVP awards and the nickname “Japanese Babe Ruth.”

At 29 years old, he just signed a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. This record-breaking contract, announced Saturday, is as impressive as his home runs and fastball: $275 million more than Angels teammate Mike Trout received in 2019; 10 million more per season than Damian Lillard of the NBA’s Milwaukee Bucks, who had the highest annual salary in American professional sports. It is also more than the 50 to 60 million that Argentine Lionel Messi earns every year with Inter Miami, in football.

Ohtani’s blockbuster deal highlights the often confusing economics of baseball and professional sports in general, where broadcasters and companies shell out hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars to tie their businesses to players and teams. whose success may be fleeting.

An increasingly international sport

The Japanese Hideo Nomo, Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui obtained considerable contracts. But Ohtani broke the bank. This contract shows that Japanese players are not just very good: they are among the best – and most popular – in an increasingly international sport.

“There are more and more Japanese players in the United States, but with Ohtani we are taking it to a whole new level,” says Vince Gennaro, vice dean of the sports management program at New York University, who has advised several major teams.

Shohei Ohtani isn’t the only Japanese star in demand this winter. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 25, the best pitcher in Japanese baseball for three seasons, is being courted by the New York Yankees and the Mets, as well as other teams. Two other left-handers, Shota Imanaga and Yuki Matsui, from Rakuten Golden Eagles, are also on the market.

But teams that evaluate their talent have the same problem as American players: managing a team is not like running an airline or a grocery store. Supply, demand, profits and losses are unpredictable and random. A player’s monetary value is often based on disparate statistics and the guess that he will not be hampered by age, injuries or bad luck.

Elbow injury

Ohtani is excellent at the plate, but may not pitch in 2024 as he injured his elbow last summer. However, if he continues to be a formidable hitter, the Dodgers will pay him for his ability at the plate and on the mound. This way, they will only receive a fraction of what they paid for their colossal investment.

So how can we finance this golden bridge?

Since the Dodgers already have the best attendance in the majors (10 of the last 11 seasons), box office receipts can’t increase that much. Raise ticket prices? This would scare the average fan, who doesn’t arrive at the stadium in a limousine.

Since Ohtani’s games will be broadcast in Japan, Japanese companies will want to pay for advertisements at Dodgers Stadium. Will they want to pay more than an American company? We’ll see. The Dodgers have exclusive sales of jerseys, hats and other items in their territory, but revenue outside their region is shared among the 30 baseball teams.

And while the Dodgers already have a lucrative local broadcast contract, it is the league that controls national and international deals, including the one with the Japanese broadcaster.

Nomo, Irabu and Soriano

Ohtani’s contract might never have been signed if Hideo Nomo, Hideki Irabu and Dominican Alfonso Soriano had not defied Japanese restrictions on player movement in the 1990s. Nomo, for example, retired from Japanese baseball to sign with the Dodgers, while Irabu said no when the Chiba Lotte Marines wanted to trade him to the San Diego Padres. Irabu was then sent to the Yankees, a team he wanted to play for. A few years later, Soriano, recruited as a teenager by Hiroshima’s Toyo Carps, followed.

If the Dodgers don’t make money directly from Ohtani, perhaps they are playing for the long haul. They have been in the playoffs for 11 consecutive years but have only won one World Series. Pairing Ohtani with Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts – two other former MVPs – and a great group of pitchers, the Dodgers could be the dominant team of the decade.

It’s a far cry from the Los Angeles Angels, who have never made the playoffs or even had a season above .500 in Ohtani’s six seasons.

“If the Dodgers win two or three World Series in the next six or seven years, Ohtani will be the face of the franchise and an entire generation of fans will follow the team for years to come,” predicts Gennaro.

This article was published in New York Times.