“This is only my third game. I haven’t had a training camp. I haven’t played in the preseason. So it’s all moving pretty fast for me. I’m going to need a window of about 10 games and then see where I’m at.”. With these words James Harden He tried to explain his situation and his poor performance with the LA Clippers after his transfer after losing violently to him Dallas Mavericks. The 2018 MVP has been in the spotlight since the end of last season, which is when he asked transfer to the 76ers after failure to reach a renewal agreement.
And it’s not for less.
From December 2020 Harden has requested his transfer on three separate occasions, ending up with everything in the position he wanted. And in all he ended up, at the same time, asking to leave in a much improved inner state.
Now, with the Clippers, once again surrounded by stars and ready to fight for the championship, James Harden does not seem to live up to the high expectations they had. Three games are not enough to draw any conclusions, but they mean the alarm bells have rung with a team under a lot of pressure to get results.
In fact, it’s proof that, since Harden arrived, the Clippers have been a worse team, even without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George or Russell Westbrook They have lost a match.
If until November 6, Angelenos had the third best net score (difference between offensive and defensive efficiency) of the entire NBA with a +11.6from the transfer that has been made the fourth worst (-13.7). In the blink of an eye they have gone from top of the league to occupying the middle zone in terms of efficiency, a statistic that largely reflects the performance of teams.
The numbers and statistics with such a small sample tend to be very extreme, but they do not fail to show that the change did not have an immediate positive effect. However, Is it an adjustment or could the James Harden signing be a major setback for the Clippers?
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Will Harden’s shooting accuracy stay the same or decrease?
One of the few things to appreciate about James Harden’s arrival to the Clippers is his success in front of the basket. When it comes to traditional stats, James Harden drops it 50% on three-pointers and 58.3% on two-point shots, plus 100% on free throws. These figures are unsustainable, especially considering he’s a manipulator, so most of his attempts will be in closely guarded situations.
However, since being traded from the Oklahoma City Thunder, he hasn’t been surrounded by talent on a consistent basis. This means that the options for more comfortable shots, from steady feet or from a semi-advantage will increase and maybe, just maybe, you will be more accurate than before.
In fact, last season with the 76ers they are represented the most in three-pointers after a pass (1.8) since the pre-Mike D’Antoni era on the Rockets. That was a sign that Harden was tweaking his game, accepting his new reality to a degree, and giving off good feelings (41% on 3-pointers from the pass).
In this 3-game stretch, James Harden has averaged 2 3-pointers after passing. connecting 50% of them. A high percentage that should stabilize around 40% and even increase in volume. As the weeks go by, the point guard will end up needing those types of actions as his role on the team becomes more defined.
Nevertheless, something should be considered. The DARKO statistic, focused on projections based tracking, predicts that Harden’s outside accuracy will take a huge dip this season. According to these figures, the player The Clippers will connect on 35.4% of their outside attemptswhich would be a logical development seeing that as of 2020 their average success rate is 35.8%.
NBA seasons are very long and passing games can end up putting the shot The beard in the position it should be and not in the one it was showing until now.
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James Harden, star liberator
As explained upon arrival in this mediumJames Harden represents a long-standing desire by Clippers management to bolster the point guard position. With Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the list of names It is essential to have an elite manager who eases the pressure on them and provides them with balls in advantageous situations. The aim and goal of the 2018 MVP is to fulfill this mission, which is far from simple.
On the other hand, it’s no less true that if you carefully analyze Harden’s games, you can see that he’s starting to work along those lines.
Despite averaging just 4.7 assists compared to 10.7 last year (league high), Harden has some 10.3 features, according to NBA statistics, production 13.7 points for his teammates. To put that in context, Russell Westbrook, who averages 6.1 assists per night, produces nearly as many (14.4) with fewer potential assists (9.8).
What does all this translate to? In that the rest of the Clippers players were not as inspired as one would expect to go to the basket. Without going further, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are the players who have received the most passes from the Los Angeles team. The 2019 champion has just connected for 13 points on 29 passes on 41.7% 2-point shooting and 20% 3-pointers after connecting with Harden. What from P.G. It is even more alarming with a 22.2% of two and 14.3% of three.
The numbers, as explained earlier, will reach a point where they stabilize, but the game breakdown calls for optimism since Harden is running the systems to get the ball to the Clippers’ stars in good situations:
The direct block, Harden’s Achilles heel and danger for the Clippers
James Harden’s rise to the highest levels of the NBA has been driven by his ball handling skills. The beard he liquidated a play system on the Rockets and turned it into MVPbut where it was really unbalanced was in its execution instant lock, in the two-on-two game. The Californian controls very well key variables such as synchronization, Blocked corners and what defense the opponent puts up.
As the seasons have passed and his physique has lost the luster it once had, Harden has come to depend much more on those sequences.
Now, on the Clippers, the star has started on the right foot in managing the immediate block, occupying it 95.9 percentile as a manager. Which doesn’t take into account that he’s lost the ball on almost a quarter (23.5%) of the possessions he’s had in those types of sequences.
The problem has two compatible explanations.
One, which involved the Clippers’ offensive line, which was already heavily overloaded with players who weren’t too committed to enforcer roles. In such a way that when faced with a direct block from Harden, no one is in the most appropriate space to make it work, allowing the opposing defense to be comfortable:
Another, the result of Harden’s progressive and ongoing loss of explosiveness, which has made his decision-making more predictable given his limitations in finishing near the rim. This forces him to connect much more than he should with the inside in continuation with the rim, a pass that is more critical and complicated than it seems:
For all of this, the best version of Harden’s direct blocking has come when he is not surrounded by the combination of Leonard, George and Westbrook, but as the axis of the Clippers’ attack.
That’s where the Angels have to make the most of their IQ and readings, much more limited when their two main stars are with them at the same time:
The conclusions that can be drawn from these first games of James Harden in a Clippers jersey are positive individually and negative collectively.
His volume of turnovers will end up decreasing as he gains pace in the match, just as his teammates’ passing accuracy will increase and his shooting accuracy will go in the opposite direction.
What doesn’t seem so clear is whether the Clippers’ project under this structure will end up making sense before it’s too late.
