Inoue is trying to get his fourth win of the year. This may help your opponent

The Samurai Night tournament will take place on December 27 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. As part of the main event of the card, Japanese absolute world champion Naoya Inoue (31-0, 27 KOs) will defend his status in the fight against 25-year-old Mexican representative David Allen Picasso (32-0-1, 17 KOs).

This will be Naoya’s fourth fight in 2025. And another step towards the Japanese mega-fight against Junto Nakatani, which could be the next match for both boxers.

Inoue has been very active this year. Picasso will enter the ring much fresher

Naoya Inoue has set a high pace for 2025. This is not typical for boxers of this level and class. As a rule, fighters who receive titles and status move towards making money from all this. They have great struggles against famous rivals, trying to earn as much money as possible. Or they box against people they don’t know, exhaust their status and use it to the fullest.

Naoya raised eyebrows when he said he wanted to do more than the two fights in 2025, which has been his standard tempo for years. And I was even more surprised when I kept my promise and reviewed all the applicants.

The first one was Ye Joon Kim. Not a name you’d want to see against Inoue, but that’s how it turned out. Naoya simply beat him: he knocked him out in the 4th round. He also did it beautifully when he wanted exactly an opponent – stating that the Japanese should attack.

The next opponent was Ramon Cardenas. As in the lightweight divisions, he is a tough opponent who takes a heavy hit from Mexico. He even knocked Naoya out in the 2nd round. But the success could not be improved: Inoue knocked him out before the championship rounds.

Another important factor is that this fight did not take place in Japan. Naoya left his home for the first time in a long time and entered the fight in front of Mexican fans supporting his opponent. This in no way prevented the Japanese from winning.

The third and last was Murodzhon Akhmadaliev. Eddie Hearn’s Matchroom Boxing client. The Briton claimed that Inoue was afraid of Murodjon and avoided meeting him. This was partly true about avoidance. More precisely, Naoya gradually passed the competitors in the belts and reached the Uzbek boxer.

Surprisingly, the former Olympian, who was a representative of the recently successful boxing school Akhmadaliev, did not show anything surprising. He jumped around his opponent, tried to counterattack, tried to connect. However, all this was very short-lived and it was as if Murodzhon was afraid of his rival.

As a result, Inoue won confidently, although not ahead of schedule. Naoya later said that he saw opportunities to defeat his opponent ahead of schedule but backed out. But this is not a new story for every boxer with such a large and early victory percentage.

This can be expected to be Inoue’s last fight of the year. However, he enters the ring again – this time against the young Mexican Picasso. He also lays claim to Naoya through an organization. And he, like a real Japanese, follows the program without deviating to the side.

Picasso is an invincible boxer who is much younger than his opponent. Very percussive, fast-paced. What’s interesting is that Inoue is once again facing an opponent bigger than himself. Both in arm span and height. This is no surprise considering how the not-so-great Japanese have risen through the categories.

What’s wrong with David’s opposition? It’s a good question because it’s impossible to equate this list of opponents with Inoue’s opponents. But he is not a failure. The same Kenosuke Kameda whom Picasso defeated in the previous meeting is a good opponent. There were multiple interesting rivals, but it’s not impossible to single out a specific set of rivals. There is no point in equating this with the record of a Japanese who has been competing at championship level for years.

Who is the favorite?

Picasso’s potential victory is one of the biggest upsets of 2025 in boxing, if not the main one. Naoya Inoue’s victory usually comes with a ridiculous odds of 1.025. At the same time, David’s raised hand is valued at 13.40.

It’s hard to argue with these figures, but there are still counter-arguments. Picasso has many advantages. These are dimensions. The ability to use them.

Multi-hit compositions. Good footwork. Theoretically, the Mexican can knock out his opponent from a distance by constantly maneuvering around the ring.

However, this is theoretical. Luis Neri could have done the same; took a heavy blow. And Ramon Cardenas is also a boxer who can punch well and recorded a crazy knockout at the end of 2025. Akhmadaliev’s legs are good. He also puts it together very skillfully – almost better than Picasso!

The dimensions are great. But none of Inoue’s opponents in the new league were significantly smaller than him. Naoya found himself in a situation where the opponents around him could not lose to him purely physically. But it was not broken in any way.

And now we come to the conclusion that Picasso’s real problem was his rival. Naoya Inoue is a very strong boxer. Moreover, he is much more experienced.

Now the only thing that can break it is time and high activity.

This is exactly what Picasso had to rely on. Showing his best and hoping that four fights a year will be too much for Inoue. The one who broke it in 2025 was Merab Dvalishvili, who looked like an absolute machine. Maybe Picasso will be lucky too?