The Gunners are not considered favorites in Premier Leaguedespite the leadership.
Life is gradually returning to club football. And one of the main intrigues of the English season is the question of maintaining Arsenal’s leadership in the Premier League. Will Mikel Arteta’s club keep their five-point lead? Someone believes that the only question is when exactly Manchester City will “eat up” the backlog of the Gunners. Either way, Arsenal now feel empowered to go all the way and do the seemingly impossible – win the title. But the “gunners” passed only the easiest part of the way.
historical experience
For Arteta’s young team to lead by five points, after suffering only one defeat in 14 games, is a great achievement. But what will happen next? Statistics show that in the modern era, i.e. since the 1992/93 season, in 30 seasons, the team that was leading at Christmas has won the tournament more often. This happened in 16 cases. In 14 seasons, another became the champion. The same “Arsenal” in 2003 was inferior to “Manchester United” by Christmas, but won the title.
This time the stats will be a bit skewed because Arsenal had played 14 games over Christmas. Usually 17 games are played at this point. So the label of “Christmas leader” for the Arteta team can be hung very conditionally. But there’s no denying the Gunners are in the running for the title. Arsenal have had a brilliant first half of the season and are deservedly in the lead. All bookmakers still consider Manchester City the favourites.
However, Josep Guardiola’s side will have little margin for error if Arsenal continue like this. But this is also a challenge for the Gunners. Perhaps even more than for the “citizens”. And the situation for Arsenal is not as simple and clear as it was before the World Cup.
the main problem
The biggest problem for Arteta will be the loss of striker Gabriel Jesus. He could miss up to four months due to an injury in the Brazilian national team. The 25-year-old forward has scored five goals for the Gunners since his £45m transfer from Manchester City. His performance may not seem all that impressive, but Jesus’ contribution as a team player is invaluable. Without Jesus, Arsenal will have to find a way to make their attack work just as well and effectively.
Another important issue for Arsenal will be the fate of defender Ben White. He had to leave the England squad at the start of the World Cup for personal reasons. White’s versatility and consistency at full-back and centre-back have been very important to Arsenal’s results this season. The Gunners need it to return to its previous form.
However, there are also positive conclusions after the World Cup. For example, Bukayo Saka looked outstanding in the England squad. And his Brazilian national team-mate Gabriel Martinelli is close to renewing his contract with Arsenal.
Problem awareness
At Arsenal they understand that a difficult period awaits us. So far this season, Arsenal have used the most players in the league with more than a thousand minutes on the pitch in the Premier League. Nine players. Fatigue could become a factor at some point, as the match schedule will only tighten.
“We will play every three days” said Arteta. – There will be an incredible number of games that we will have to play. We will need more resources, more players to go this way. We are confident that we are on the right track. But there are also troubling moments. The second part of the season will be unprecedented, but we have to be ready.”
The winter transfer market could save Arsenal’s position. However, there are more rumors that someone could leave the Gunners for a move to a more prominent club than about newcomers to Arteta’s team. As we remember, the financial possibilities of the Gunners are limited, and they have already spent enough in the summer. So it’s not worth waiting for the transfer auction in January. Crucially, the fight can take place to keep the leaders at Arsenal. There will also be a battle.
Difficult segment
Arsenal’s run of fixtures ahead of the return to European competition in mid-February will give a clear indication of whether the Gunners can continue to fight for the title or be relegated. And City can build on their experience in the league and the depth of their squad, which is City’s main advantage over Arsenal.
Monday’s home game against West Ham is the start of a difficult journey, followed by a tough trip to Brighton and a game against Newcastle in top form. An FA Cup match with Oxford and a derby with Tottenham will follow Premier League, after which – a home match with Manchester United. All this until the end of January. This will be a big test for Arteta and his team. Proof of ambition. To some extent, the Gunners were also lucky to get rid of the League Cup, losing a couple of games before the break to Brighton (1:3). Subsequently, the questions that arose were resolved with a 2-0 victory over Wolverhampton away.
Some unexpected Premier League title winners got off to a good start, then everyone expected them to decline. This was the case for Leicester in 2016, and even before that for Blackburn in 1995. They got off to a good start and managed to keep up the pace until the end of the season. But there were many who were blown away in the second half of the season. We will soon find out which category Arsenal will fall into.
