Although the scorer quota of Erling Haaland It was amazing for him City of Manchester (26 goals in 21 games between the Premier League and Champions League), some weak recent team performances from Pep Guardiola -and specifically from the former Dortmund- began to create a question that is heard more and more often around the the citizens: Did Haaland’s entry make the team better or worse?

Common sense seems to point to an obvious gain. Despite all these, Haaland already has 26 goals mid-season when 2021-2022 No City player scored more than 18 between the Premier and Champions (Riyad Mahrez did that, while Kevin De Bruyne had 17 and Raheem Sterling 16.)

However, there are also arguments to be made that while City have clearly taken a step forward on an individual level, the collective has suffered with the entry of a forward of their style Finisher Norwegian.

One touch, one goal! 🎯@ErlingHaaland | #ManCity pic.twitter.com/bkHm9MxLJd

—Manchester City (@ManCity) August 31, 2022

the recent one 1-2 in the classic against United It put Guardiola’s men on alert. Not just because of the loss he took them away from the Arsenal captain (they were 8 points clear) but, above all, because of how bad City looked in that game: He barely finished 5 times against the goal that De Gea defended and, apart from the goal, he had almost no clear-cut situations to score.

In his previous Premier League showing, City weren’t much better: tight 1-0 against Chelsea, helped by a rude error from Kepa, but far from his dominant performances. A day before, unexpected 1-1 against a relegation-fighting Everton side. In the middle, the relegation to the League Cup against another team fighting to keep the division, such as Southampton.

In the last five games, City registers two wins, two losses and one drawbut also just added 7 goalswith a low average 9.8 shots per game. Acceptable numbers for any other team, but not for Guardiola’s usually unstoppable machines. Whether Haaland is one of those responsible or not, something is clearly going wrong.

The transformation of Manchester City’s attack

The change between Haaland and the players who occupied this position last seasonnotably Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus and Phil Foden (all associated outside the area); it cannot be more noticeable. Obviously the Norwegian has the definition and scoring threat as a very clear advantage, but the comparison with Jesus shows the Brazilian very high in other areas.

Haaland averages just 13.9 passes on the move every 90 minutes. Jesus averaged 35.8 in 2021-2022. Almost triple. Haaland averages only 2.26 actions every 90 minutes that create a shot from a teammate. Jesus was in 4.1. The former Dortmund man touches 24 balls every 90 minutes… Jesus, 49.

Manchester City were a better team without Haaland, even if he scores 40 goals this season

— Didi Hamann (@DietmarHamann) January 14, 2023

Basically, City missed another counter from their attack and earned a stoppage, something quite predictable due to the characteristics of the players involved. But the big question remains: Is the balance positive or negative? And although there are some indications that may tip the balance towards the second option, the reality is that there is still no clear answer on the matter.

In the 24 games played between the Premier League and Champions League in 2022-2023, City have scored 60 goals. I mean exactly 2.5 per game. What happened last season? 127 goals in 50 games. A little more percentage 2.54 per meeting.

However, where there is a The capital difference lies in how they arrived at these figures, When we consider the numbers of expected goals (estimation of the probability that a shot will result in a goal, according to different factors).

In 2021-2022, these 127 goals were reached with 123 expected goals. In other words, they converted almost at the same level as what they produced. In 2022-2023? They have that 60 goals, but barely me 49.9 expected goals.

At this season’s rate, City would finish the campaign with 103.9 expected goals. Almost 20 fewer than in 2021-2022. But at the same time, with a similar number in real goals, exploiting with much greater power every option that is created against the opposite goal.

It produces less, is more dynamic and has a similar rating. Better or worse? For now, otherwise.