Knocking out favorites is a European Cup tradition.

Rare seasons in the Champions League do without the “dark horses” who eliminate the favorites. One of the last was Monaco, Ajax, Villarreal, Tottenham, Lyon. Before the return matches in the round of 16 begin, it’s time to think about who will reach the decisive stages of this season.

First contender: Napoli

In terms of dry numbers, the potential passage of the Neapolitans to the 1/4-1/2 final phase is truly an unexpected turning point. A year earlier, Luciano Spalletti’s wards played in the Europa League, lost twice to Spartak and were content with second place in the group. Now, even against the background of Liverpool, they looked decent and reached the playoffs as the leader of the quartet.

But in fact, Napoli is difficult to compare with other sensational clubs. Ajax, Villarreal and others – all this is a unique breakthrough, an impulse that vanished as quickly as it appeared. The Spalletti project, on the contrary, is the result of a progressive work that the Neapolitans manage to develop.

The club has a quality selection of players who are progressing rapidly. Lobotka-Angissa-Zeliński formed a quality connection in the center of the pitch – each of this trio complements partners. Offensively, functionality expanded with the advent of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and defense became more reliable under Kim Min-Je. So, at this moment, Napoli are not just shadow favourites, but a team which, based on the selection of players, can easily qualify for access to the semi-finals. The wow factor is rather how quickly they gained weight and gained confidence.

Benfica worked a bit on the bugs

The Eagles have only made the playoffs three times in the past 10 years. Champions League – in the 2015/16 and 2021/22 seasons they reached the quarter-finals, in the 2016/17 season they stopped at the 1/8 finals.

For a long time, Porto has shown itself most successful in the main European Cup, which over the past 5 years has qualified for the playoffs 4 times and twice reached the quarterfinals.

In 2020, the Benfica bosses bet on Georges Jesus: the Portuguese coach has laid the foundations for 4 team championships in a row. Now he has arrived to continue the winning tradition and take the team to a new level in international competition. From the first attempt it was not possible to implement the plan, but in the 2021/22 season Benfica ended up in the quarterfinals, beating Ajax in 1/8.

Last summer, coaching changed again at the club, with Roger Schmidt at the helm. The German managed to achieve the desired effect – the Eagles lead in the national championship and in the first game of the playoffs Champions League confidently beat Brugge. During the entire season, the Portuguese have lost only once in regular time (Braga in December), and in the group stage Champions League he resisted tooPSG“- to hold out behind the European giants, so that under the circumstances, Benfica can aim for the semi-finals.

Borussia must fill the price tag on Bellingham

Not to mention that a powerful team has gathered in Dortmund, as is the case with Monaco and Ajax. There are several introductory ones, thanks to which the chances of the “yellow-blacks” to continue their way towards Champions League they are getting taller.

First of all, it is coach Edina Terzic. The German coach ideally implements a scenario in which his team has less ball possession. Borussia have quite lively flanks, and Jude Bellingham is the team leader in terms of the number of shots and tackles per match.

This factor overlaps with who the Germans are playing with. Chelsea love possession, which initially allows Dortmund to play their way. At the same time, the “aristocrats” are experiencing huge problems in building the game – there are too many newcomers in the team, which negatively affects the training process. Furthermore, it is not possible to form a stable backbone – the initial formation changes a lot. Hence the problems with teamwork and implementation.

Dortmund took advantage of the opponent’s weakness and achieved victory in the first game. The return match will be played in London. While it is doubtful Borussia Dortmund will be able to withstand the Blues’ onslaught on the road, the Germans have the leverage to go further. And in 1/4 you can aim to repeat the scenario: European giants also like to own the ball.

Leipzig should take advantage of Guardiola’s weaknesses

Everyone knows the Guardiola complex. The Spanish manager regularly tries to reinvent the wheel at crucial stages Champions League – comes up with new settings for gamers where this shouldn’t be done, and complicates the task itself. As a result, such decisions prevent the “citizens” from going further: players in new roles cannot show their fullest and are forced to spend time adapting, the marriage rate increases, and the pace slows down. And this time, such a feature appeared even earlier than usual – in the round of 16 against Leipzig.

Pep once again used the 3-4-2-1 formation, which he has begun to use more actively recently. At the same time, he transferred Kyle Walker to the position of fullback on the right edge – for the first time in a long time, the Englishman was faced with the need to hold the flank on his own. Riyad Mahrez came out under the striker and played a false ten, covering the entire pitch.

Leipzig could not take full advantage of City’s permutations: due to a mistake by Schlager, they conceded the first goal. But basically, equality on the board for the Germans is not such a bad result. The second leg will have to be played away, but you can be sure that Guardiola will go to experiments again – and in this case, Marco Rosa’s wards will be close to sensationally reaching the quarter-finals. Repeats the result of the 2019/20 season (semi-final Champions League) are unlikely to succeed, but hitting 1/4 – especially in comparison with City – is also a great success.