Everton, Leicester and Leeds staged a contest.
The final of the domestic European championships is approaching, so there is less and less intrigue in the tournaments. Most often, all attention is focused on the showdown at the very top, in the European Cup zone. But if this or that team does not get into the Champions League or the Europa League, this, of course, will be offensive, but not as dramatic as in the case of the club’s relegation from the top leagues. The team in this case leaves the zone of increased attention and money for at least a year. And some fail to recover for decades after going through minor league purgatory.
But often the fate of relegation or non-relegation hangs in the balance, depending on the outcome of a match or two. So the cost of final matches for such teams is much higher than for those clubs that are fighting for places in European competitions. Therefore, at least in England, the most nervous last round will be suffered by the fans of Everton, Leeds and Leicester, who risk relegation from the Premier League. So far, only Southampton have been awarded this status.
Only Everton in this trinity can independently control their own destiny and not rely on the results of other matches. Leicester could have been such a team, but missed the opportunity by drawing in the last round with Newcastle (0-0). The “Toffees” in their match of the 37th round snatched an equalizer in the 99th minute from the “Wolves” (1:1), taking advantage of this opportunity. But to be sure to stay inside Premier Leaguenow Everton must beat Bournemouth at home in the final round.
In the event of a draw or loss to Everton, there are opportunities for Leicester and Leeds, but they need to win their home games against West Ham and Tottenham respectively. Just West Ham lost against Leeds in the last round. And that defeat could end up costing a team who are now 19th, two points behind Everton. Leicester have the same points as Leeds but are in 18th position.
Who needs what?
The layout is pretty simple. If Everton win against Bournemouth, they will remain in the Premier League 100%. If the Toffees tie, statisticians estimate their chances of staying at 64%. They are also considerable in case of defeat: 49 percent. As far as Leicester and Leeds’ estimated chances go, a win for the Foxes gives them 54% saves, while a draw and a loss give them zero. At Leeds, a win gives 17 percent, a draw and a defeat – nothing. Those calculations were made by the sports analytics and statistics company Gracenote.
Everton (17th, 33 points)
Next game: against Bournemouth at home, a 21% relegation chance.
Everton’s results improved after Sean Dyche took over at the end of January, replacing Frank Lampard as head coach. However, that wasn’t enough to avoid trouble at the end of the season. Butterscotch were seconds away from defeat by Wolverhampton on the final day. Only time will tell how valuable Jerry Mina’s late goal was.
Perhaps the scored point will become incredibly valuable. At Goodison Park, the crowd will do their utmost to ensure Everton can beat Bournemouth and save themselves from final-day relegation for the third time in the Premier League era. It is interesting that two teams will meet, which have been hit on goal more often this season. Bournemouth made 608 shots to Everton’s 564.
Leicester (18th, 31 points)
Next game: with West Ham at home, an 83% relegation chance.
Leicester finished eighth in the Premier League last season and reached the semi-finals of the Europa League. But the Foxes got off to a terrible start to the campaign, scoring just one run in their first seven games.
Brendan Rodgers was named a hot candidate to be fired to start the season. However, he lasted longer than many other coaches. Leicester has also had a bit of a revival. Still, Rodgers couldn’t hold out in the coaching chair and was replaced by Dean Smith. Leicester have a lot of talented players up front, but the Foxes have a lot of problems with conceding goals. In their last 21 games, Leicester have only once kept clean sheets. After the draw against Newcastle, Smith said:
We will need help. I think the fight between the three teams will be tense. We have to work hard against West Ham to try and win. But even then not everything will be in our hands. Of course we will go out of our way to say that we did our best to put pressure on Everton.
Leeds (19th, 31 points)
Next game: against Tottenham at home, the probability of relegation is 95%.
Leeds were in a similar position last season. Then in the last round they beat Brentford (2:1) and remained in the Premier League, while Burnley left the tournament. Leeds have been frantically looking for the right manager this season. Jesse Marsh was sacked in February as Leeds went seven consecutive games without a win. Javi Gracia, who came to replace him, started encouragingly, but the team quickly lost momentum even with him. Then he was replaced by the English stowaway Sam Allardyce.
Leeds boosted their save hopes with a 2-2 draw at home to Newcastle, only to lose to West Ham and find themselves in the worst position of the three survivors. Now fate is not in the hands of Leeds and their rival – the most serious of all competitors – Tottenham. Thus, statistical calculations show that Leeds have a 95% chance of leaving the Premier League.
