Olympiacos’ mandatory win over Karabagh and the 2nd place scenario

On Thursday (October 13th, 7.45 p.m., COSMOTE SPORT 2 HD, LIVE from Sportish) Olympiacos meets Karabagh on the 4th day of the Europa League groups. The game in Baku this year (until next) is one of the most crucial for the Red-Whites’ European course.

Mitchell’s side are bottom with zero points after losing their first three games. However, Olympiacos need a win against the Azerbaijani to reignite hopes of second or third place.

Before we say anything else, let’s see what each group position gives in the Europa League:

• The 1st moves into the round of 16
• The 2nd plays in an extra round to qualify for the 16 with a third from the Champions League groups
• The 3rd place advances to the corresponding extra round of the Europa Conference League and meets someone from the 2nd group of this competition
• The 4th is excluded from continuing European competitions

First place for Olympiakos is mathematically possible but realistically elusive. Because they need three wins in the next three games combined with three defeats against Freiburg, a win over the Germans by more than three goals and not to overtake Qarabag and Nantes!.

Therefore, Olympiacos will prefer Freiburg on Matchday 4 to beat Nantes away, allowing the German team to ‘secure’ first place and keep the French at the bottom.

Europa League matchday 4 schedule:

• 13.10., 19:45 Karabakh – Olympiacos
• 13.10., 19:45 Nantes-Fribourg

The ideal scenario for 2nd place

Olympiacos, although difficult, can stay in the Europa League and finish second in their group. First he needs to get the double in Azerbaijan and ensure Nantes beat Freiburg to catch them in the draw.

In this scenario, the Red-Whites need the next game double in Germany against Freiburg and a Nantes win over Garabagh, as the draw criteria makes it easier to beat the French team (1-2 loss to Nantes) while he lost to Garabagh 3-0).

The Equality Criteria

1. Points in games played by tied teams
2. Goal difference in matches between tied teams
3. The goals in favor in the matches of the teams that are tied
4. Goal difference in all group matches
5. Goals for all group matches
6. Away goals in all group matches
7. Wins in all group matches
8. Away wins in group matches
9. Less disciplinary points (straight red = 3 points, red with two yellows = 3 points, yellow = 1 point)
10. UEFA ranking

So if Olympiacos beat Nantes by more than a goal on the last matchday and at the same time Karabagh don’t beat Freiburg in Baku, they will finish on 2nd place and be in the extra round of the Europa League from the new year.

The third position is the most realistic

Olympiacos will need a double or even a draw in Karabagh to stay alive in the battle for 3rd place. In February, the red-whites in European competitions even have to be in the playoffs of the Conference League.

In the event of Nantes losing to Freiburg, Olympiacos can catch up with the French. If he stays around, the final game against Nantes will be either dead or dead in a packed Karaiskakis.

In the inevitable scenario, Olympiacos loses to Qarabag and Nantes wins or draws against Freiburg. In this case it will also be more difficult for the 3rd place. Therefore, it is understood that the game in Baku is of central importance.

However, in this phase that Olympiacos has reached, it is not only about their own strengths, but also about the other results of others. In any case, after game 4 ends, there will be safer scenarios for what each team needs.

The program of the group in detail:

The game plan for the 4th matchday:

• 13.10., 19:45 Karabakh – Olympiacos
• 13.10., 19:45 Nantes-Fribourg

The schedule for the 5th matchday:

• October 27, 10:00 p.m Friborg – Olympiacos
• October 27, 10:00 p.m Nantes – Karabakh

The schedule for the 6th matchday:

• 3/11, 7:45 p.m Olympiacos – Nantes
• 3/11, 7:45 p.m Karabakh – Fribourg