The leadership of Olympiacos and the paradox of AEK

Olympiacos host AEK in the big derby of the 23rd game of Super League Interwetten (13/2, 19:30, NOVASPORTS PRIME, LIVE Sportish). 14 points separate the two teams in the overall standings, but also a psychological abyss.

The Red-Whites remain unbeaten in the league and ended up escaping Panetolikos’ exclusion midweek with Masouras moving up to 4th place in the Cup.

At the same time, in the delays, the Union saw a shocking exclusion from PAOK at their headquarters, which plunged them into an even greater introversion than those that had brought poor league results.

AEK seem to be looking for a reaction, a way to slow down the crisis, while Olympiakos want victory to keep PAOK from getting close and go into the clashes with Atalanta with a clear head.

The image of previous gladiators in the championship

Let’s see how the two teams go into battle. See the infographic for how the two teams have performed in the championship so far, as per Opta/Stats Perform data. The red box is the best performing team in each category.

AEK has a lead offensively, even marginally. The Union threatens stronger with 1.30 xGoals against the Red-Whites with 1.21 and has a higher endgame average (14.2 – 13.6).

Olympiacos compensates for this small disadvantage in attack with their defensive performance. The Red-Whites receive much less threat from AEK (0.62 – 0.94) and allow the opponent a lower number of endgames (8.4 – 11.1).

We have a perfect balance in the big chances, the Union narrowly wins the steals high on the field category, while Olympiacos is vastly superior in attacks with build-up.

Yellow and black lead in actions in opposing areas, red and white in aerial duels.

The course of this year’s form and the previous two seasons

Let’s take a look at how the teams’ form has progressed this year, as well as how they’ve progressed over the past two seasons. The curve in the chart shows the difference in xGoals the two teams have with their opponent over a six-game moving average.

simply put, the graph shows how much better Olympiacos and AEK are than their opponent in each period.

In the previous two seasons, Olympiacos were consistently well above AEK. The red-whites fell that year but in no way emulated the Union’s incursion into the gap.

After the arrival of Giannikis, the following paradox occurs. AEK picked up wins and points in games they didn’t deserve (wins with Aris, Panathinaikos and PAS, a draw in Tripoli) and started dropping points as his performance improved.

The Origins of the Olympic…

Let us now focus on the spaces of creation. Let’s see where the passes and crosses come from, which take advantage of the teams’ chances in the normal flow of the game, i.e. not from fouls and corner executions.

In the graph, the attack is to the right, and the darker the area, the greater the percentage of creation that comes from there.

The most important area is what coaches and analysts call “Zone 14,” the rectangle in the semicircle of the large area. It’s not easy to find passes that create chances, but that’s where the best, most dangerous phases come from.

We start with the host Olympiakos.

The top design spaces for Olympiakos are at the ends, not “deep” in attack, but in front of the line height of the area. From left Olympiakos gets 17% and from right 16%, with Zone14 “only” missing 11% of Martins’ team’s chances.

… and AEK

Let’s also go to AEK.

From the left comes the greatest volume of creation for AEK, where Tsouber and Mandalos move where the Union has found 18% of the opportunities.

Impressive for Union is the fact that they received the same percentage from Zone14. No team in this year’s Super League has taken more than this spot.