Mercedes chief Toto Wolff believes the biggest threat to Formula 1 teams ahead of the 2026 season is the discrepancy between simulations, testing and the actual behavior of the cars on the track.

Starting next season, the championship will experience the biggest technical rules change in the history of Formula 1. Both chassis and powertrain rules will be completely updated.

The new cars will feature active aerodynamics and the power plants will have significantly more powerful electrical systems, capable of producing up to 350 kW of energy from the battery, compared to 120 kW in 2025.

Mercedes is often cited as one of the favorites for the future, given the team’s dominance since the introduction of turbo hybrids in 2014. However, in 2022 the team lost a run of eight consecutive titles in the Constructors’ Championship after switching to ground effect.

Looking to the future, Wolff emphasizes that the real picture will only become clear when the new cars take to the track for the first time.

“Only the future will tell the true situation. People often try to attribute success or failure to a single factor. This could be a new management, a team leader, a coach, an aerodynamics manager or the arrival of so-called “geniuses” who will change the fate of the team.

It is actually about a group of people working together and collectively making the right decisions based on quality data, the right infrastructure and maximum correlation between the virtual and real world.

After all, this is how we learn about our car today, despite all the restrictions. “If that data doesn’t match reality when the car hits the track, that’s the biggest risk for any team.”

Wolff also emphasized that he did not allow himself to be too optimistic on the eve of the new regulatory period.

“I’m never sure; I’m always a glass-half-empty kind of person. That’s why we’re doing everything we can to create a car and a powerhouse that can compete for the championship.”