Of the 32 seeds in his men’s tournament Australian Open 2023only three tennis players already know what it means to win a grand slam: Rafael Nadalthe greatest winner in tennis history, novak djokovictop Australian champion, and Daniel Medvedevone of the world ranking leaders last season, are some of them.

Between Nadal and Djokovic they add 43 Grand Slams, but there are just four champions among the 126 remaining players who will play in the main draw of the tournament: Andy Murray, Stanislas Wawrinka and Dominic Thiemthe three far from their best and not looking like threats for another title round out this group.

ATP is already experiencing a generational change, with Roger Federer’s retirement and Carlos Alcaraz’s jump to the top of the rankings at the end of 2022, but due to injury, the Spaniard will not be able to be in Melbourne, nor will another Grand Slam champion, who will have to be placed as Marin Cilic due to injury.

While Alcaraz’s appearance is more original, there are already several star names on the ATP circuit still waiting to say they are Grand Slam champions and join that group that has been completely dominated by Nadal, Federer and Djokovic for the past 20 years. (They have just failed to win in 13 of the 80 tournaments played since 2004).

Since 2004, only two ATP seasons have featured four different Grand Slam champions.. 2012, with Djokovic in Melbourne, Nadal in Paris, Federer in London and Murray in New York, and 2014, with Wawrinka in Melbourne, Nadal in Paris, Djokovic in London and Cilic in New York.

Very different from when, for example, between 1998 and 2003 there were 14 different champions in 24 Grand Slam tournamentswith only Andre Agassi (5) and Pete Sampras (4) achieving more than two crowns.

Medvedev (1996) and Alcaraz (2003) are the only players born after 1994 to become Grand Slam champions. There’s a whole generation in debt in between. Of the top 16 at this Australian Open, more than half (nine) have no Grand Slam finals experience.

Casper Ruddthe current top three in the world, already has this experience: last year he was in the definition of Roland Garros and the US Open, although he does not appear beforehand as a big threat in this Australian Open or at least one on the same level as what What says your ranking?

Alexander Zverevwho in 2020 blew a two-sets-to-nil lead in the US Open final, neither: after spending several months without playing due to the ankle injury he suffered in mid-2022, he reappeared on the circuit a few days ago in United Cup and fell to Jiri Lehecka and Taylor Fritz in straight sets, with many problems on his serve (13 double faults between the two matches).

For the bookmakers, the two most likely to join the club of new Grand Slam winners are Stefanos TsitsipasRoland Garros 2021 finalist, and Nick Kyrgios, Wimbledon 2022 finalists. Two talented sets, but known for their volatility. The Greek has already experienced upset in the semi-finals of three of Australia’s last four semi-finals, while Kyrgios has reached the quarter-finals just once on home soil, in 2015.

The landscape at WTA

In the women’s sector the picture is different but with some similarities.

The withdrawals of Serena Williams and Ashleigh Barty, Simona Halep’s doping suspension and the pregnancy absences of Naomi Osaka and Angelique Kerber have left the Australian Open draw with 11 former Grand Slam champions8.5% of participants, a good percentage, but only six of them are among the 32 qualifiers and one in the top ten of the WTA rankings.

Iga Swiatek, dominant in 2022, has already had a change of guard after Barty’s exit as No. 1 and Australian Open champion in 2022. The Pole won Roland Garros and the US Open last year, while Wimbledon went to surprise Elena Rybakina. 23, who could not yet reach the top ten because that edition of Wimbledon did not give ranking points.

While the previous champions like Garbiñe Muguruza, Sofia Kenin and Sloane Stephens are far from their bestemerging as new threats are Caroline Garcia (WTA Finals champion and US Open semi-finalist in recent months), Coco Gauff (Roland Garros 2022 finalist), Jessica Pegula (never made it past the quarterfinals at a Grand Slam) and Arina Sabalenka (three-time Grand Slam semifinalist).