What do Swiatek and Sabalenka need to finish the season as world number one?

The fight for first place in the rankings at the end of the year will be held at the WTA Finals tournament in Cancun next week. Incumbent No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will look to defend her spot against No. 2 Iga Swiatek and finish the year in first place.

Sabalenka will come to Cancun with 8,425 points in the championship race. Swiatek is 630 points behind him with 7,795 points. Coco Goff, who is in third place, is 2,470 points behind Sabalenka and remains out of the race for first place at the end of the year.

Scenarios for Sabalenko

• Sabalenka No. 1 decides her fate. Regardless of Swiatek’s results, he can secure this year’s first place by advancing to the final with a score of 2-1 in the group round.
• If Swiatek loses one of the group matches, Sabalenka will be able to take 1st place without losing in the group round or reaching the final.
• If Swiatek loses two matches in the group stage, Sabalenka will be able to take first place in the group with a score of 2:1.

Scenarios for Światek

• If Sabalenka loses 0-3 in the group stage, Swiatek must either win the championship or advance to the final with a score of 3-0 in the group.
• If Sabalenka loses 1-2 in the group stage, Swiatek will need to win the championship.
• If Sabalenka wins 2-1 in the group stage, Swiatek will need to win the title with at least two wins in the group stage.
• If Sabalenka wins 3-0 in the group stage, Swiatek needs to win the championship with a score of 3-0 in the group.

Sabalenka, who was the Australian Open, Madrid and Adelaide champion this season, reached the US Open final in September and became world number 29. The rise of the 25-year-old football player ended Swiatek’s 75-week first place reign, which he had maintained since April 2022.

Swiatek finished the WTA regular season strongly, winning her fifth title at this year’s China Open in Beijing. In addition to titles in Doha, Stuttgart, Roland Garros and Warsaw, Światek enters the WTA tournament finals as the leader with 63 wins.

Both tennis players qualified for their third consecutive WTA final. The teams ranked first and second respectively cannot meet before the semi-finals.

Last year in Fort Worth, Sabalenka and Swiatek reached the playoffs for the first time. In the semi-finals, Sabalenka defeated Swiatek with scores of 6:2, 2:6, 6:1, breaking her four-match losing streak.

They have faced each other twice this season and both matches took place in clay court finals. Swietek defeated Sabalenka in straight sets to retain her title in Stuttgart. Two weeks later, Sabalenka avenged her three-set defeat with a win in Madrid.