Germany could be relegated from the group again. Is it deserved?

The main sign of the group stage of the World Cup

The match between the 2010 and 2014 world champions was, as expected, the main cover of the group stage of the tournament in Qatar. After the draw it was immediately clear: the Spanish and Germans would leave the group, while Japan and Costa Rica would stay behind, watching the battle of the titans from the side. However, the Japanese managed to cause a sensation in the starting group and present a great intrigue in the group.

The Bundesteam needed points like air, and contrary to Furia Roja’s very convincing performance in the match against the Costa Ricans, they didn’t seem to have much of a chance. Not the most impressive second part of the match with Japan forced the coaching staff, headed by Hansi Flick, to make changes in the composition and game of their team.

In the starting lineup against Spain, we saw two changes: Koerer replaced Schlotterbeck and Leon Goretzka replaced Kai Havertz. Moreover, the duties of three players changed at once – Niklas Süle returned to central defense, losing his flank to Kerer. Gundogan came up to the attack, playing against Spain in the role of “tens”. Thomas Müller returned to his usual role in the national team.

The changes immediately made themselves felt. The match in terms of intensity, execution and intensity was clearly the best match we have seen at the current World Cup.

The main characters of the game sit on the carriage decks

From the first minutes of the match it became clear for what purpose the changes were made by Hansi Flick. Thomas Müller was much better than Havertz at starting pressure and finding weaknesses in the Spanish defence, which allowed the Germans to cover the opponent in their own half, interfere with the short play of the ball and cause the Spaniards to make mistakes.

Both teams opted for aggressive off-the-ball play and tackled their opponent up high. Very rarely in the first half have we seen moments where one of the teams was in positional attack. Most attacks arose either from successful exits from under pressure, as a result of which a rapid attack was initiated, or after successful pressing.

Flick was well aware of the Spaniards’ midfield capabilities and instructed Gundogan to take personal action with Busquets to eliminate his influence over the distribution of the ball. The task was completed – Busquets was one of the worst in terms of the number of passes made.

Luis Enrique found salvation in short draws, where the goalkeeper of the team, Unai Simon, played an important role, who, among other things, made more passes than Busquets or Gavi themselves. Together with Rodri and Laporte, Unai helped to overcome the German pressure, and with a successful combination of circumstances, a numerical advantage arose in the offensive side, since a considerable part of the Germans in the transition could be cut off from the game.

The game changed in the 54th minute when Alvaro Morata entered the field. All the advantage that the Spaniards had finally turned into full-fledged chances, and it was Alvaro who managed to make one of the chances. In the episode with the goal, the Spaniards managed to stretch the German defense in an exemplary way, which allowed Alba to shoot from the wing without hindrance, and Morata played as required in such situations by the forwards, running from behind the opponent in time. After the goal, the “red fury” had a moment in which they could double in a 3 against 2, but Asensio sent the ball towards home.

Due to the defeat in the first round, the situation for the Germans became a stalemate and something had to be changed. Flick did just that, making several substitutions up front which allowed the game to be opened up and transferred to the Spanish half. After a goal in the 62nd minute, the height of the Spanish defensive line went down from 46.5 meters to 36.3, ball possession from 67.4% to 56.9% and pitch gradient from 66.7% to in favor of Spain to 65.2% in favor of Germany.

Luis Enrique’s team lost control of the ball and, more importantly, the game. The exit of Füllkrug and Sane has become one of the keys to the match. Fullkrug is a classic center forward, which has allowed, as in the case of Morata, to increase the danger of chances in the opponent’s goal. And Leroy Sane has successfully contributed to the creation of chances thanks to his good dribbling and ability to sharpen. It was Leroy who made a pre-goal pass to Musiala, who then gave it to Füllkrug himself.

The Spaniards were better for most of the match, but the Germans reacted well to the missed goal and took control of the ball, changing the nature of the game. A draw in a match is a completely natural result.

The situation in the group before the third round. Does Germany still have a chance?

After two rounds and a point scored, the Germans remain in last place in the group and a victory over the Costa Rican team will not be enough for a guaranteed entry into the playoffs. Hansi Flick’s wards, as well as himself, can only rely on the their recent rivals. In case Spain is defeated by an East Asian team, Germany’s chances will be zero.

However, a scenario is possible in which Spain and Japan will part ways peacefully, and the German team will defeat the Costa Ricans. Then other factors come into play. In this case, the Germans will have to win by more than 2 goals.

Furthermore, there is a much less likely scenario. With Japan defeating Spain and Germany defeating Costa Rica by a difference of 7+ goals (or less, depending on how far Spain loses the difference), it will be the winners of the third round matches who will drop out of the group.

There are also less likely scenarios where there will be the same number of points, the difference between goals scored and conceded, as well as the number of goals scored. In such a situation, the team that advanced to the playoffs will be determined by fair play points, depending on the number of yellow and red cards.