The development tests of the new Formula 1 cars do not lend themselves to absolutely certain conclusions, in particular about the absolute speed in a lap, but there are some reasonably certain indications from the racing simulations because the fuel load of each car can be predicted with some accuracy.

In such a simulated race, as in a race, teams drive a series of laps between designated pit stops for tire changes to determine the rate of wear of each type of tire on the four corners of the car.

Many F1 experts, therefore, during the testing of the new F1 2023 cars in Bahrain, noticed the sharp drop in performance of the Ferrari SF-23 during such a simulation. Scuderia hoped to solve last year’s F1-75 problem with this year’s new Cavallino, which was one of the reasons they failed to compete for titles with the Red Bull RB18 in the second half of 2022.

But the test results of the SF-23 did not allow positive conclusions in this area – at least for observers. And their suspicions were further reinforced by the words of Fernando Alonso, the generally impressive performance and reliability of the Aston Martin AMR23 over the three days, that the British car was “slightly faster” than the Ferrari SF-23 on the lap series of the simulation.

“On the last day of testing we did a racing simulation”said the Spaniard. “We did 57 laps, just like we will do these three days in Bahrain. We did 57 laps on fuel and did the 57 laps on race settings, even with the tire changes. Ferrari did the same program as us at the same time, with the same fuel for the race and the same pit stops. And we were a bit faster.”

However, Italian newspaper La Gazzetta dello Sport writes that the SF-23’s troubling conclusions regarding tire management are due to the heavy fuel load the Cavallino was constantly carrying – especially with the C3 tire. The softer C4 and C5 tires were also used in the Bahrain tests, but at the Bahrain GP this three-day C3 will be the softest, alongside the medium C2 and hard C1.

In particular, the Italians report that even with small exits from the garage, even with the softest tires, the Ferrari SF-23 had a consistently high fuel load, reaching 35-40 kg. And that load never dropped below 20kg, unlike Red Bull who gave the RB19 less fuel for each stint in the race sim – as much fuel as it would need under realistic conditions.

In short, as the Italian newspaper writes, the SF-23’s tire management was misleading every time due to the increased weight from the fuel load – more than would be required to cover the entire distance of a race and contributing to excessive tire wear. It also remains to be seen how the RB19 will cope with its various tires with a full tank load.

Whether these are true – or not – will be proven in any case next Sunday, March 5th, at the first GP of 2023 in Bahrain. On the other hand, however, they confirm the general feeling from the tests that Aston Martin has the potential not only to approach but to compete with the top three teams in F1 this season.