At the moment it’s not entirely clear what prompted Max Ferstappen to abandon the 39th lap of the morning Australian GP, ​​his second after six laps before the end of this year’s Formula 1 race in Bahrain.

There was a first glimpse that the problem was linked to the gearbox, which the Milton Keynes team’s engineers worked on with great dedication yesterday and in the hours leading up to the race, changing its settings from qualifying to the start. The RBR also sent a letter to the referees during this time to inform the FIA ​​of the clutch and hydraulic gearbox changes.

But the team’s manager, Christian Horner, said: “I don’t think it’s related to that [με το κιβώτιο ταχυτήτων], still with the engine, but it is difficult to speak with simple assumptions. I think maybe it was a fuel issue but we have to bring the car back [στο εργοστάσιο]”.

A few hours later, Team Counsel Helmut Marco offered more information: “There was a fuel leak, but we don’t know where and how. It just leaked a lot of benzene. We said so [στο Φερστάπεν] stop immediately – preferably near a fire extinguisher”, said the Austrian. However, he clarified that the problem is not the same as with RBR in Bahrain.

Bahrain’s problem centered on the fuel pump. The pump wasn’t a problem – after all, it’s what all teams use – but something the RBR couldn’t find in the power system on this year’s cars. During the final laps, the last liters of fuel remaining in the tank are exposed to very strong and continuous movements inside the tank due to the vehicle’s changes of direction and weight shifts.

This increases the temperature of the fuel (particularly the new biofuel E10), starts to vaporize and causes sharp pressure changes and pump malfunctions – a malfunction which, in the case of the two RB18s in Bahrain, led to the collapse of the electricity supply system. The RBR solved that problem, but that was just the tree in the looming forest of its problems.

Marco’s words that “we don’t even know these problems” and the “difficult days await us” show that beneath the surface of issues like the pump in Bahrain and the fuel leak in Australia, Red Bull Racing has one key issue: its lack of winter preparation.

The problem of the pump with a few liters in the tank could have been identified by the team during testing in February if the RBR had found the time to do a few laps with a minimal tank filling. How possibly the “whatever” question of credibility brought the task to Melbourne.

However, RBR seemed to take the good operation of its mechanical parts more or less for granted during the winter. In addition, the engines have not undergone any significant changes compared to the previous year. The only thing that changed was this year’s new biofuel (with 10% ethanol). Honda could have found it had it retained its full involvement in the pbefore leaving at the end of 2021? Most likely.

Because Red Bull Racing seemed to have no time (and) for that. She had to grapple with last year’s title fight until mid-December, then in the winter finalizing the design of her new car, which Adrian Newey traditionally leaves to paragliding, and after the aerodynamic upgrade he presented on the final day in Bahrain.

Mercedes had exactly the same strategy – the one with the worst results – and it’s clear that these two teams are paying for keeping much of their attention and infrastructure in the 2021 title fight until late last year, giving them the white design of the car of 2022 withheld.

Ferrari has had exactly the opposite luxury: it has been turning its full attention to the 2022 car since early last year, and even the power unit upgrades made last fall were mainly aimed at further developing it into 2022. So it has had all year to understand the new F1-75 to identify any problem found in the factory to perfect it.

However, it took a wise decision from Matthias Binotto and the team’s technical direction: to focus their full attention on a deep understanding of the new car during the winter, to gather all the information that could be gleaned from its infinite settings to appear on the surface get as much speed out of it as possible.

Instead, RBR and Mercedes, particularly Mercedes, opted to follow familiar paths: focusing on a major aerodynamic upgrade in the second phase of winter testing, likely believing they would have occupied their new car by then. For Mercedes, the risk failed miserably, for Red Bull partially: it created an aerodynamically leading and very fast car, but at the expense of unstable performance and fragile reliability.

It’s not just the power issues that RBR failed to identify and resolve over the winter. There are also issues with brake overheating (which didn’t allow Ferstappen to threaten Leclerc with demands in Bahrain, at least until his departure), but also with steering and tire management.

Ferstappen struggled with RB18 setbacks and slips in both Bahrain and yesterday’s qualifiers in Melbourne. Jeddah’s nighttime conditions saw less thermal stress on the tires which benefited her, but the car was again upset in Australia.

And then there’s the weight issue: Newey had to redesign the floor of the RB18 – with the aerodynamic upgrade package at the end of the Bahrain test – with the least possible sacrifice in floor lift. This was a major factor in the car being around 7kg heavier than the weight limit – and significantly heavier than the Ferrari F1-75, according to Helmut Marco.

So now RBR has to find solutions to all the problems: catastrophic fuel supply failures, brake overheating, poor tire management – ​​which is already a lot more stressful than last year –, the fragile balance in its RB18 setup, the increased weight.

Ferrari, on the other hand, has a car that understands it well – and understands it better and better, as shown by the stability of its performance at all tracks, all temperatures and all conditions. And as demonstrated by the unimaginable comfort with which Charles Leclerc handles his tires on his new triumph this morning in Melbourne.

On this receptive base, which Scuderia is constantly perfecting, any aerodynamic upgrade will be much easier to apply, easier to understand and instantaneous. On the contrary, each upgrade of the RB18 can change the balance of the car, complicate other areas, solve problems or create others.

Despite the technological depth of the team from Milton Keynes, as well as the Mercedes F1 at Barakley, perhaps Ferrari’s $140m budget cap and well-structured understanding keeps the Scuderia one step ahead – regardless of race conditions, temperatures and tracks, the RB18 will favor .